Where does the data come from?
All player skill data comes from DataGolf's predictive model, which estimates each golfer's expected strokes gained per round based on their most recent ~150 rounds, weighted toward recent performance and adjusted for field strength across all professional tours. These are forward-looking skill estimates, not simple historical averages. We use their API to pull skill ratings, pre-tournament predictions, field updates, and schedule data in real time.
What makes Divot Lab's analysis original?
We build derived metrics on top of the raw data. Our Course Fit Score applies hand-curated weight profiles for each course, reflecting which strokes gained categories historically matter most at that venue. The Overperformance Index cross-references the model's win probabilities against raw skill rankings to surface where the model sees an edge that the rankings alone don't show. Momentum tracks how each player's model probability has trended over recent events — capturing form shifts that the 150-round skill averages are slow to reflect.
How does Course Fit work?
Each PGA Tour course demands a different skill mix. TPC Sawgrass punishes poor iron play (approach weighted at 40%), while Torrey Pines rewards length off the tee (OTT at 30%). We assign weight profiles to each course — off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green, and putting — that sum to 100%. Each player's SG in those categories is multiplied by the weights and summed to produce a Course Fit Score. The "±SK" column shows how a player's fit rank compares to their raw skill rank: a positive number means the course suits their game better than their overall ranking suggests. These weights are our editorial analysis, refined over time based on observed results.
What are Strokes Gained categories?
Strokes Gained measures how many shots a player saves (or loses) relative to the field in four areas: Off-the-Tee (driving), Approach (iron play into greens), Around-the-Green (chipping and pitching), and Putting. A player with +1.30 SG: Approach gains 1.3 strokes per round on the field with their iron play alone. SG Total is the sum of all categories and represents overall skill. A player with SG Total of +1.5 or higher is considered elite.
How is Field Strength calculated?
We compute a 0-10 rating based on the average SG Total of all players in the field, the number of elite-tier players (SG 1.5+), and the depth of top-tier contenders (SG 1.0+). A signature event like The Players Championship typically rates 7-9, while a regular-season event might be 4-6. The Field Strength Breakdown shows how many players fall into each talent tier compared to a season-average field.
How often does the data update?
During tournament weeks, all data refreshes every 5 minutes including live scoring, win probabilities, and strokes gained. Between tournaments, data updates every 6 hours as new skill ratings and field announcements come in. Pre-tournament predictions are typically available by Tuesday or Wednesday of event week.