Course Profiles / Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
Course Profile · Updated 2026-08-16

Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge:
what wins here.

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard · Derived from round-level strokes gained, 2022–2023–2024–2025 · ~65 players per field

Course-fit weights
OTT 19% / 19%
APP 31% / 27%
ARG 17% / 15%
PUTT 33% / 39%
Model — the weights Divot Lab uses for this venue (data blended with course judgment, recalibrated August 2026). Pure data — derived from the historical rounds alone (top-10 vs. field strokes-gained gap per category).

What the data says

Across 4 recent editions (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025), the players who finished top-10 at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge separated from the field most through putting (39% of the total separation), with approach play second at 27%. Around the green mattered least — 15% — which is worth knowing when the broadcast narrative says otherwise.

The winners tell their own version: in 1 of the last 4 editions, the champion's best category for the week was around the green. That differs from what separates the whole top-10 (putting) — winning weeks are outlier weeks, usually powered by a hot week in one skill on top of the baseline the course demands.

Course notes: Bay Hill — water, approach precision, firm greens.

How the winners won

Strokes gained per round for each recent champion, by category. The green number is that winner's best skill for the week.

YearWinnerTo ParOTTAPPARGPUTTTotal
2025Russell Henley-11+0.38+0.30+1.59+0.91+3.18
2024Scottie Scheffler-15+1.26+0.83+0.95+1.09+4.12
2023Kurt Kitayama-9+0.09+0.83+0.53+1.40+2.86
2022Scottie Scheffler-5-0.09+2.02+0.31+1.06+3.29
Method. Weights are derived from DataGolf round-level strokes gained: for each season, the gap between the top-10 finishers' per-category average and the field's, recency-weighted across 4 editions with a 10% floor per category, then normalized. Winner rows show per-round strokes gained for the week. The model blends these derived weights with course judgment — both numbers are shown above, and every change to the model is logged publicly in the changelog. Full methodology: how the model works.

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