Original studies on golf prediction models and betting markets

The data and methodology behind the picks — calibration audits, market efficiency tests, and everything we learn trying to find an edge in professional golf.

DataGolf calibration chart — predicted vs actual top-10 finish rate

Study 01 June 2026

Conservative by Design

A six-year calibration audit of DataGolf's prediction model — 292 events, 36,656 player-event records. The model is well-calibrated overall, but it systematically underestimates elite players by 5+ points.

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DataGolf vs Pinnacle win probability scatter chart

Study 02 June 2026

The Market Already Knows

Measuring DataGolf's edge against Pinnacle's closing line across 284 events. The win market is fully efficient — but the less-liquid top-10 market hasn't caught up to the model.

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Popularity premium chart — book markup ratio for elite players vs. the full field across eight sportsbooks

Study 03 June 2026

Same Number, Higher Price

Eight sportsbooks, one signal. Recreational books price as accurately as Pinnacle — they just charge roughly double for it. And the "popularity premium" everyone assumes exists runs backwards.

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