Course Profiles / Harbour Town Golf Links
Course Profile

Harbour Town Golf Links:
what wins here.

RBC Heritage · 7 editions, 2019–2025 · 2,643 rounds analysed

Course-fit weights
OTT 28% · rewarded
APP 22% · less decisive
ARG 25% · neutral
PUTT 25% · neutral
Derived by regressing finishing position on strokes gained at this course, measured against the tour-wide baseline, then tested on seasons the model had never seen. Based on 546 player-events.

What the data says

Across 7 editions (2019–2025), off the tee is the category that most separates players who contend here from those who do not — 28% of the model's weighting, against 22% for approach play.

The winners tell a partly separate story: in 4 of the last 6, the champion's best category for the week was approach play. That differs from what the model weights, and the gap is instructive — winning weeks are outlier weeks, usually powered by one skill running hot on top of the baseline the course demands.

How the winners won

Strokes gained per round for every champion here since 2019. The green figure is that winner's best category for the week.

YearWinnerTo ParOTTAPPARGPUTTTotal
2025Justin Thomas-17-0.26+0.96+0.54+1.38+2.62
2024Scottie Scheffler-19+1.30+1.72+0.05+0.03+3.10
2023Matt Fitzpatrick-17+0.40+1.55+0.79+0.68+3.42
2022Jordan Spieth-13+1.08+1.20+1.06-0.64+2.70
2021Stewart Cink-19+0.41+2.14+0.89+0.58+4.02
2020Webb Simpson-22+0.22+1.42+0.15+1.65+3.44
Method. Weights come from regressing top-20 finishes on players' strokes gained in each category, using only rounds played before each event, and comparing each course against the tour-wide baseline — so a weight measures what this course rewards more than golf generally does, not simply which skills help. Weights are kept only where they predicted results out of sample; where they did not, we say so. We tested our previous method, found it did not predict, and published that too: how the model works.

This week's field, ranked.

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