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Green marks the player the model favors to win. Every side is priced at its best available book. On matchups the book hold runs around 5% and the model typically disagrees with the market by about 1 point, so most edges read negative — that is the vig, not a verdict. Refreshes every 10 minutes.
These are pre-round lines — posted a while agoUnlike the outright board, nothing here is mismatched: DataGolf’s matchup line and the book’s are both from before the round, so comparing them is still valid. What it describes is the state at tee-off, not now. Check the current price at your book before betting, and expect round matchups to reprice between rounds rather than during them.
What we tested
Every number here came from our own archive. Ideas that failed are listed beside the ones that worked, at the same size, because a page of things that worked is a brochure.
Calibration of the inputs
Our course model consumes DataGolf’s pre-tournament probabilities, so how well those are calibrated sets a ceiling on anything we build over them. This measures the input, not our own work.
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What changed, and when
Every change to the course-fit model, dated. Misses are logged with the same prominence as fixes.