Course Profiles / Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club

Course Profile · No validated fit signal

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club:
what wins here.

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP #2 · 5 editions, 2019–2024 · 1,546 rounds analyzed

Weights — not validated

OTT 25%

APP 25%

ARG 25%

PUTT 25%

Every category weighted equally. This course has not accumulated enough history for its weights to be tested, so we do not score course fit here.

How it plays

Not what the scorecard says — what this course does to the same players, measured against everywhere else they play. Built from 1,546 rounds across 5 editions, and ranked against every course in the archive.

Measure	Versus elsewhere	Which means	Across the archive
Driving distance	−3.7 yds	shorter off the tee here	22nd shortest of 89
Fairways hit	−5.0 pp	harder to find	13th hardest to find of 89
Greens in regulation	+2.6 pp	easier to hit	23rd easiest to hit of 88
Scrambling	+2.1 pp	easier to save par	16th easiest to save from of 81

Scoring. These players average 0.34 shots fewer per round here than they do elsewhere.

Plays most like. Dunes Golf and Beach Club, Oakdale Golf &, Golf Club of Houston — the closest courses in the archive on those four measures together.

A record of what happened, not a forecast. Estimates are shrunk toward the tour mean by how much evidence each course has, and every baseline leaves the course itself out, so a venue cannot define the average it is measured against. Split-half reliability 0.888. Weather is not controlled for.

What it has taken

The numbers the week has actually demanded, edition by edition, counted from the scores rather than from anyone’s summary of them. The cut line is the worst halfway score that still saw a Saturday.

-15

typical winning score

Range -20 to -14 across 5 editions.

-9

to reach the top ten

The tenth-place score, median of 5 editions.

+11

to see the weekend

Where the cut fell, median of 1 edition.

Year	Field	Cut	Top 10	Won with
2024	77	no cut	-13	-20
2023	77	no cut	-5	-14
2022	78	no cut	-10	-15
2021	78	+11	-5	-15
2019	76	no cut	-9	-19

The week, round by round

Scoring average for each round of the tournament, drawn against this course’s own four-round average. Round 3 has played 0.84 of a shot easier than round 1, the widest gap in the week.

hardereasier

ROUND 1

+0.08 avg

ROUND 2

-0.22 avg

ROUND 3

-0.76 avg

ROUND 4

-0.55 avg

Longer to the right is easier scoring than a typical round here; longer to the left is harder. Built from 1,540 rounds — every player who completed an edition at this course, counted in all 4 of his rounds. Only finishers are in it, because Thursday is played by the whole field and Sunday by the half of it that survived the cut: compare those as they fall and every course on tour looks like it eases off for the weekend. Weather is not controlled for, so a single storm-hit afternoon is in these numbers along with everything else.

Who has played above themselves here

Strokes gained per round at this course against the same player’s own average everywhere else. Being a good player is not enough to appear on this list — the comparison is with himself, so what is left is the part that belongs to the course.

Player	Rounds here	Here	Elsewhere	Gap
Keegan Bradley	16	+1.72	+0.53	+0.48
J.J. Spaun	12	+1.51	+0.33	+0.39
Luke List	12	+1.09	+0.02	+0.36
Taylor Moore	12	+1.18	+0.23	+0.32
Kurt Kitayama	12	+1.26	+0.38	+0.30
Satoshi Kodaira	20	+0.01	-0.65	+0.30

The gap is pulled toward zero by how few rounds sit behind it, so a player seen four times here does not outrank one seen twenty. Read it as a record, not a projection: players who keep coming back to a course are partly the ones it has already suited, and that selection is inside these numbers.

What the data says

We do not publish a course-fit read for Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. Venue weights are kept only where they predicted results on seasons the model had never seen, and this course has not yet accumulated enough history to clear that bar — 5 editions in the archive.

That is deliberate. It would be easy to generate confident-looking numbers from 1,546 rounds of scoring data; they would just not mean anything. Until the signal is testable, every category is weighted equally here and course fit is not scored. The winners below are still worth reading as history — they are simply not a forecast.

How the winners won

Strokes gained per round for every champion here since 2019. The highlighted figure is that winner's best category for the week. A dash means the category split is not published for that event — only the total is.

Year	Winner	To Par	OTT	APP	ARG	PUTT	Total
2024	Nico Echavarria	-20	+0.34	+2.00	+0.23	+1.07	+3.64
2023	Collin Morikawa	-14	—	—	—	—	+4.01
2022	Keegan Bradley	-15	—	—	—	—	+2.90
2021	Hideki Matsuyama	-15	—	—	—	—	+4.23

Method. Weights come from regressing top-20 finishes on players' strokes gained in each category, using only rounds played before each event, and comparing each course against the tour-wide baseline — so a weight measures what this course rewards more than golf generally does, not simply which skills help. Weights are kept only where they predicted results out of sample; where they did not, we say so. We tested our previous method, found it did not predict, and published that too: how the model works.

The field, ranked before they play.

Every tournament week we score the field on course fit and player quality. Lab Notes lands every Tuesday with what the numbers say, free.

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Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club:what wins here.