Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard · 8 editions, 2019–2026 · 2,672 rounds analyzed
Not what the scorecard says — what this course does to the same players, measured against everywhere else they play. Built from 2,672 rounds across 8 editions, and ranked against every course in the archive.
| Measure | Versus elsewhere | Which means | Across the archive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Driving distance | −5.8 yds | shorter off the tee here | 13th shortest of 89 |
| Fairways hit | −3.4 pp | harder to find | 24th hardest to find of 89 |
| Greens in regulation | −8.5 pp | harder to hit | 2nd hardest to hit of 88 |
| Scrambling | +0.4 pp | easier to save par | middle of the pack |
Scoring. These players average 0.95 shots more per round here than they do elsewhere.
Plays most like. Royal Troon, Colonial, The Riviera — the closest courses in the archive on those four measures together.
The numbers the week has actually demanded, edition by edition, counted from the scores rather than from anyone’s summary of them. The cut line is the worst halfway score that still saw a Saturday.
| Year | Field | Cut | Top 10 | Won with |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72 | +2 | -8 | -15 |
| 2025 | 72 | +4 | -5 | -11 |
| 2024 | 69 | +3 | -4 | -15 |
| 2023 | 119 | +2 | -5 | -9 |
| 2022 | 120 | +3 | -1 | -5 |
| 2021 | 122 | +2 | -3 | -11 |
| 2020 | 119 | +3 | +1 | -4 |
| 2019 | 122 | +1 | -7 | -12 |
Scoring average for each round of the tournament, drawn against this course’s own four-round average. Round 1 has played 2.09 of a shot easier than round 4, the widest gap in the week.
Strokes gained per round at this course against the same player’s own average everywhere else. Being a good player is not enough to appear on this list — the comparison is with himself, so what is left is the part that belongs to the course.
| Player | Rounds here | Here | Elsewhere | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrrell Hatton | 20 | +2.24 | +1.05 | +0.54 |
| Russell Henley | 20 | +1.89 | +0.88 | +0.45 |
| Jason Kokrak | 16 | +1.65 | +0.62 | +0.41 |
| Jordan Spieth | 16 | +1.57 | +0.58 | +0.40 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 12 | +2.27 | +1.14 | +0.38 |
| Brendan Steele | 14 | +1.10 | +0.11 | +0.36 |
Across 8 editions (2019–2026), off the tee is the category that most separates players who contend here from those who do not — 26% of the model's weighting, against 24% for putting.
The spread is narrow, which is itself the finding: this course does not strongly favour one kind of player. Weights this close to even mean the field sorts mostly on overall quality, and any course-fit edge here is small.
The winners tell a partly separate story: in 2 of the last 7, the champion's best category for the week was putting. That differs from what the model weights, and the gap is instructive — winning weeks are outlier weeks, usually powered by one skill running hot on top of the baseline the course demands.
Strokes gained per round for every champion here since 2019. The highlighted figure is that winner's best category for the week. A dash means the category split is not published for that event — only the total is.
| Year | Winner | To Par | OTT | APP | ARG | PUTT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Akshay Bhatia | -15 | -1.09 | +0.49 | +1.42 | +2.65 | +3.47 |
| 2025 | Russell Henley | -11 | +0.38 | +0.30 | +1.59 | +0.91 | +3.18 |
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | -15 | +1.26 | +0.83 | +0.95 | +1.09 | +4.12 |
| 2023 | Kurt Kitayama | -9 | +0.09 | +0.83 | +0.53 | +1.40 | +2.86 |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | -5 | -0.09 | +2.02 | +0.31 | +1.06 | +3.30 |
| 2021 | Bryson DeChambeau | -11 | +1.76 | +1.06 | +0.29 | +0.69 | +3.84 |
| 2020 | Tyrrell Hatton | -4 | +0.38 | +1.82 | +0.37 | +0.84 | +3.40 |
Every tournament week we score the field on course fit and player quality. Lab Notes lands every Tuesday with what the numbers say, free.
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