Course Profiles / Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Course Profile

Bay Hill Club & Lodge:
what wins here.

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard · 7 editions, 2019–2025 · 2,428 rounds analysed

Course-fit weights
OTT 26% · rewarded
APP 26% · rewarded
ARG 24% · less decisive
PUTT 24% · less decisive
Derived by regressing finishing position on strokes gained at this course, measured against the tour-wide baseline, then tested on seasons the model had never seen. Based on 464 player-events.

What the data says

Across 7 editions (2019–2025), off the tee is the category that most separates players who contend here from those who do not — 26% of the model's weighting, against 24% for putting.

The spread is narrow, which is itself the finding: this course does not strongly favour one kind of player. Weights this close to even mean the field sorts mostly on overall quality, and any course-fit edge here is small.

The winners tell a partly separate story: in 2 of the last 6, the champion's best category for the week was off the tee. That matches what the model weights, which is the cleaner case: the same skill that separates the field also tends to decide the tournament.

How the winners won

Strokes gained per round for every champion here since 2019. The green figure is that winner's best category for the week.

YearWinnerTo ParOTTAPPARGPUTTTotal
2025Russell Henley-11+0.38+0.30+1.59+0.91+3.18
2024Scottie Scheffler-15+1.26+0.83+0.95+1.09+4.12
2023Kurt Kitayama-9+0.09+0.83+0.53+1.40+2.86
2022Scottie Scheffler-5-0.09+2.02+0.31+1.06+3.30
2021Bryson DeChambeau-11+1.76+1.06+0.29+0.69+3.84
2020Tyrrell Hatton-4+0.38+1.82+0.37+0.84+3.40
Method. Weights come from regressing top-20 finishes on players' strokes gained in each category, using only rounds played before each event, and comparing each course against the tour-wide baseline — so a weight measures what this course rewards more than golf generally does, not simply which skills help. Weights are kept only where they predicted results out of sample; where they did not, we say so. We tested our previous method, found it did not predict, and published that too: how the model works.

This week's field, ranked.

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