Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard · 7 editions, 2019–2025 · 2,428 rounds analysed
Across 7 editions (2019–2025), off the tee is the category that most separates players who contend here from those who do not — 26% of the model's weighting, against 24% for putting.
The spread is narrow, which is itself the finding: this course does not strongly favour one kind of player. Weights this close to even mean the field sorts mostly on overall quality, and any course-fit edge here is small.
The winners tell a partly separate story: in 2 of the last 6, the champion's best category for the week was off the tee. That matches what the model weights, which is the cleaner case: the same skill that separates the field also tends to decide the tournament.
Strokes gained per round for every champion here since 2019. The green figure is that winner's best category for the week.
| Year | Winner | To Par | OTT | APP | ARG | PUTT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Russell Henley | -11 | +0.38 | +0.30 | +1.59 | +0.91 | +3.18 |
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | -15 | +1.26 | +0.83 | +0.95 | +1.09 | +4.12 |
| 2023 | Kurt Kitayama | -9 | +0.09 | +0.83 | +0.53 | +1.40 | +2.86 |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | -5 | -0.09 | +2.02 | +0.31 | +1.06 | +3.30 |
| 2021 | Bryson DeChambeau | -11 | +1.76 | +1.06 | +0.29 | +0.69 | +3.84 |
| 2020 | Tyrrell Hatton | -4 | +0.38 | +1.82 | +0.37 | +0.84 | +3.40 |
Every tournament week we score the field on course fit and player quality. The free pick lands Wednesday, by email, before tee times.
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