The Sentry, Sentry Tournament of Champions · 7 editions, 2019–2025 · 1,212 rounds analyzed
Not what the scorecard says — what this course does to the same players, measured against everywhere else they play. Built from 1,212 rounds across 7 editions, and ranked against every course in the archive.
| Measure | Versus elsewhere | Which means | Across the archive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Driving distance | +7.6 yds | longer off the tee here | 11th longest of 89 |
| Fairways hit | +7.7 pp | easier to find | 10th easiest to find of 89 |
| Greens in regulation | +11.0 pp | easier to hit | 2nd easiest to hit of 88 |
| Scrambling | −1.3 pp | harder to save par | middle of the pack |
Scoring. These players average 3.67 shots fewer per round here than they do elsewhere.
Plays most like. TPC Summerlin, Detroit, TPC Deere Run — the closest courses in the archive on those four measures together.
The numbers the week has actually demanded, edition by edition, counted from the scores rather than from anyone’s summary of them. The cut line is the worst halfway score that still saw a Saturday.
| Year | Field | Cut | Top 10 | Won with |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 59 | no cut | -23 | -35 |
| 2024 | 59 | no cut | -24 | -29 |
| 2023 | 38 | no cut | -21 | -27 |
| 2022 | 38 | no cut | -23 | -34 |
| 2021 | 42 | no cut | -19 | -25 |
| 2020 | 34 | no cut | -8 | -14 |
| 2019 | 33 | no cut | -13 | -23 |
Scoring average for each round of the tournament, drawn against this course’s own four-round average. Round 2 has played 0.94 of a shot easier than round 1, the widest gap in the week.
Strokes gained per round at this course against the same player’s own average everywhere else. Being a good player is not enough to appear on this list — the comparison is with himself, so what is left is the part that belongs to the course.
| Player | Rounds here | Here | Elsewhere | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Morikawa | 24 | +1.97 | +1.19 | +0.39 |
| Sungjae Im | 20 | +1.61 | +0.84 | +0.35 |
| Tom Hoge | 12 | +0.93 | +0.17 | +0.25 |
| Kevin Kisner | 12 | +0.42 | -0.25 | +0.22 |
| Marc Leishman | 12 | +0.82 | +0.27 | +0.18 |
| Justin Thomas | 24 | +1.52 | +1.20 | +0.16 |
We do not publish a course-fit read for Plantation Course at Kapalua. Venue weights are kept only where they predicted results on seasons the model had never seen, and this course has not yet accumulated enough history to clear that bar — 7 editions in the archive.
That is deliberate. It would be easy to generate confident-looking numbers from 1,212 rounds of scoring data; they would just not mean anything. Until the signal is testable, every category is weighted equally here and course fit is not scored. The winners below are still worth reading as history — they are simply not a forecast.
Strokes gained per round for every champion here since 2019. The highlighted figure is that winner's best category for the week. A dash means the category split is not published for that event — only the total is.
| Year | Winner | To Par | OTT | APP | ARG | PUTT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Hideki Matsuyama | -35 | +0.51 | +2.29 | +0.34 | +1.36 | +4.49 |
| 2024 | Chris Kirk | -29 | +0.18 | +0.60 | +0.92 | +0.90 | +2.61 |
| 2023 | Jon Rahm | -27 | +1.12 | -0.72 | +0.76 | +1.51 | +2.68 |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | -34 | +1.00 | +0.68 | +0.42 | +1.62 | +3.72 |
| 2021 | Harris English | -25 | +0.64 | +0.25 | -0.04 | +1.71 | +2.57 |
| 2020 | Justin Thomas | -14 | +0.63 | +1.43 | +0.45 | +0.22 | +2.73 |
Every tournament week we score the field on course fit and player quality. Lab Notes lands every Tuesday with what the numbers say, free.
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