Course Profiles / TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
Course Profile

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course):
what wins here.

Valero Texas Open · 6 editions, 2019–2025 · 2,621 rounds analysed

Course-fit weights
OTT 23% · less decisive
APP 25% · neutral
ARG 27% · rewarded
PUTT 25% · neutral
Derived by regressing finishing position on strokes gained at this course, measured against the tour-wide baseline, then tested on seasons the model had never seen. Based on 409 player-events.

What the data says

Across 6 editions (2019–2025), around the green is the category that most separates players who contend here from those who do not — 27% of the model's weighting, against 23% for off the tee.

The winners tell a partly separate story: in 4 of the last 5, the champion's best category for the week was approach play. That differs from what the model weights, and the gap is instructive — winning weeks are outlier weeks, usually powered by one skill running hot on top of the baseline the course demands.

How the winners won

Strokes gained per round for every champion here since 2019. The green figure is that winner's best category for the week.

YearWinnerTo ParOTTAPPARGPUTTTotal
2025Brian Harman-9-0.07+1.54+0.44+1.33+3.23
2024Akshay Bhatia-20+1.07+2.06+1.57+0.59+5.29
2023Corey Conners-15+0.99+2.38+0.29+0.09+3.76
2022J.J. Spaun-13+0.66+0.68+0.83+0.76+2.94
2021Jordan Spieth-18+0.24+1.85+1.13+1.43+4.66
Method. Weights come from regressing top-20 finishes on players' strokes gained in each category, using only rounds played before each event, and comparing each course against the tour-wide baseline — so a weight measures what this course rewards more than golf generally does, not simply which skills help. Weights are kept only where they predicted results out of sample; where they did not, we say so. We tested our previous method, found it did not predict, and published that too: how the model works.

This week's field, ranked.

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