TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course):
what wins here.

RBC Canadian Open · 2 editions, 2025–2026 · 885 rounds analyzed

Weights — not validated

OTT 25%

APP 25%

ARG 25%

PUTT 25%

Every category weighted equally. This course has not accumulated enough history for its weights to be tested, so we do not score course fit here.

How it plays

Not what the scorecard says — what this course does to the same players, measured against everywhere else they play. Built from 885 rounds across 2 editions, and ranked against every course in the archive.

Measure	Versus elsewhere	Which means	Across the archive
Driving distance	+6.7 yds	longer off the tee here	15th longest of 89
Fairways hit	+4.0 pp	easier to find	26th easiest to find of 89
Greens in regulation	+3.7 pp	easier to hit	18th easiest to hit of 88
Scrambling	+1.2 pp	easier to save par	25th easiest to save from of 81

Scoring. These players average 1.00 shots fewer per round here than they do elsewhere.

Plays most like. Vidanta Vallarta, TPC Deere Run, The Old White TPC — the closest courses in the archive on those four measures together.

A record of what happened, not a forecast. Estimates are shrunk toward the tour mean by how much evidence each course has, and every baseline leaves the course itself out, so a venue cannot define the average it is measured against. Split-half reliability 0.888. Weather is not controlled for.

What it has taken

The numbers the week has actually demanded, edition by edition, counted from the scores rather than from anyone’s summary of them. The cut line is the worst halfway score that still saw a Saturday.

-17

typical winning score

Range -18 to -17 across 2 editions.

-13

to reach the top ten

The tenth-place score, median of 2 editions.

-2

to see the weekend

Where the cut fell, median of 2 editions.

Year	Field	Cut	Top 10	Won with
2026	146	-2	-12	-17
2025	153	-3	-14	-18

The week, round by round

Scoring average for each round of the tournament, drawn against this course’s own four-round average. Round 1 has played 1.47 of a shot easier than round 3, the widest gap in the week.

hardereasier

ROUND 1

-2.84 avg

ROUND 2

-2.15 avg

ROUND 3

-1.37 avg

ROUND 4

-1.53 avg

Longer to the right is easier scoring than a typical round here; longer to the left is harder. Built from 568 rounds — every player who completed an edition at this course, counted in all 4 of his rounds. Only finishers are in it, because Thursday is played by the whole field and Sunday by the half of it that survived the cut: compare those as they fall and every course on tour looks like it eases off for the weekend. Weather is not controlled for, so a single storm-hit afternoon is in these numbers along with everything else.

What the data says

We do not publish a course-fit read for TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course). Venue weights are kept only where they predicted results on seasons the model had never seen, and this course has not yet accumulated enough history to clear that bar — 2 editions in the archive.

That is deliberate. It would be easy to generate confident-looking numbers from 885 rounds of scoring data; they would just not mean anything. Until the signal is testable, every category is weighted equally here and course fit is not scored. The winners below are still worth reading as history — they are simply not a forecast.

How the winners won

Strokes gained per round for every champion here since 2019. The highlighted figure is that winner's best category for the week. A dash means the category split is not published for that event — only the total is.

Year	Winner	To Par	OTT	APP	ARG	PUTT	Total
2026	Bud Cauley	-17	+0.63	+0.46	+0.74	+1.67	+3.50

Method. Weights come from regressing top-20 finishes on players' strokes gained in each category, using only rounds played before each event, and comparing each course against the tour-wide baseline — so a weight measures what this course rewards more than golf generally does, not simply which skills help. Weights are kept only where they predicted results out of sample; where they did not, we say so. We tested our previous method, found it did not predict, and published that too: how the model works.

The field, ranked before they play.

Every tournament week we score the field on course fit and player quality. Lab Notes lands every Tuesday with what the numbers say, free.

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TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course):what wins here.