Course Profiles / Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
Course Profile

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead):
what wins here.

Valspar Championship · 6 editions, 2019–2025 · 2,654 rounds analysed

Course-fit weights
OTT 22% · less decisive
APP 26% · rewarded
ARG 26% · rewarded
PUTT 26% · rewarded
Derived by regressing finishing position on strokes gained at this course, measured against the tour-wide baseline, then tested on seasons the model had never seen. Based on 423 player-events.

What the data says

Across 6 editions (2019–2025), approach play is the category that most separates players who contend here from those who do not — 26% of the model's weighting, against 22% for off the tee.

The winners tell a partly separate story: in 3 of the last 5, the champion's best category for the week was putting. That differs from what the model weights, and the gap is instructive — winning weeks are outlier weeks, usually powered by one skill running hot on top of the baseline the course demands.

How the winners won

Strokes gained per round for every champion here since 2019. The green figure is that winner's best category for the week.

YearWinnerTo ParOTTAPPARGPUTTTotal
2025Viktor Hovland-11+0.49+1.47-0.39+1.84+3.40
2024Peter Malnati-12+0.86+0.71-0.27+2.08+3.39
2023Taylor Moore-10+0.84+1.28+0.09+1.22+3.42
2022Sam Burns-17-0.26+1.75+0.72+1.29+3.49
2021Sam Burns-17+0.57+0.93+0.41+2.27+4.19
Method. Weights come from regressing top-20 finishes on players' strokes gained in each category, using only rounds played before each event, and comparing each course against the tour-wide baseline — so a weight measures what this course rewards more than golf generally does, not simply which skills help. Weights are kept only where they predicted results out of sample; where they did not, we say so. We tested our previous method, found it did not predict, and published that too: how the model works.

This week's field, ranked.

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