Valspar Championship · 7 editions, 2019–2026 · 3,071 rounds analyzed
Not what the scorecard says — what this course does to the same players, measured against everywhere else they play. Built from 3,071 rounds across 7 editions, and ranked against every course in the archive.
| Measure | Versus elsewhere | Which means | Across the archive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Driving distance | −11.7 yds | shorter off the tee here | 3rd shortest of 89 |
| Fairways hit | −4.6 pp | harder to find | 14th hardest to find of 89 |
| Greens in regulation | −8.7 pp | harder to hit | 1st hardest to hit of 88 |
| Scrambling | +3.4 pp | easier to save par | 9th easiest to save from of 81 |
Scoring. These players average 0.40 shots more per round here than they do elsewhere.
Plays most like. Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Colonial, Royal Troon — the closest courses in the archive on those four measures together.
The numbers the week has actually demanded, edition by edition, counted from the scores rather than from anyone’s summary of them. The cut line is the worst halfway score that still saw a Saturday.
| Year | Field | Cut | Top 10 | Won with |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 134 | +1 | -7 | -11 |
| 2025 | 152 | +2 | -6 | -11 |
| 2024 | 147 | 0 | -7 | -12 |
| 2023 | 144 | +1 | -3 | -10 |
| 2022 | 144 | -3 | -12 | -17 |
| 2021 | 156 | -1 | -9 | -17 |
| 2019 | 143 | +1 | -4 | -8 |
Scoring average for each round of the tournament, drawn against this course’s own four-round average. Round 1 has played 1.48 of a shot easier than round 4, the widest gap in the week.
Strokes gained per round at this course against the same player’s own average everywhere else. Being a good player is not enough to appear on this list — the comparison is with himself, so what is left is the part that belongs to the course.
| Player | Rounds here | Here | Elsewhere | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Riley | 16 | +1.42 | -0.29 | +0.68 |
| Sam Burns | 20 | +2.13 | +0.79 | +0.61 |
| Scott Stallings | 16 | +1.56 | +0.21 | +0.54 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 18 | +0.90 | -0.12 | +0.44 |
| Lucas Glover | 22 | +1.08 | +0.20 | +0.42 |
| Jordan Spieth | 14 | +1.68 | +0.58 | +0.40 |
Across 7 editions (2019–2026), approach play is the category that most separates players who contend here from those who do not — 26% of the model's weighting, against 22% for off the tee.
The winners tell a partly separate story: in 3 of the last 6, the champion's best category for the week was approach play. That matches what the model weights, which is the cleaner case: the same skill that separates the field also tends to decide the tournament.
Strokes gained per round for every champion here since 2019. The highlighted figure is that winner's best category for the week. A dash means the category split is not published for that event — only the total is.
| Year | Winner | To Par | OTT | APP | ARG | PUTT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Matt Fitzpatrick | -11 | +0.83 | +1.48 | +0.59 | +0.15 | +3.05 |
| 2025 | Viktor Hovland | -11 | +0.49 | +1.47 | -0.39 | +1.84 | +3.40 |
| 2024 | Peter Malnati | -12 | +0.86 | +0.71 | -0.27 | +2.08 | +3.39 |
| 2023 | Taylor Moore | -10 | +0.84 | +1.28 | +0.09 | +1.22 | +3.42 |
| 2022 | Sam Burns | -17 | -0.26 | +1.75 | +0.72 | +1.29 | +3.49 |
| 2021 | Sam Burns | -17 | +0.57 | +0.93 | +0.41 | +2.27 | +4.19 |
Every tournament week we score the field on course fit and player quality. Lab Notes lands every Tuesday with what the numbers say, free.
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