The American Express, Desert Classic · 8 editions, 2019–2026 · 1,881 rounds analyzed
Not what the scorecard says — what this course does to the same players, measured against everywhere else they play. Built from 1,881 rounds across 8 editions, and ranked against every course in the archive.
| Measure | Versus elsewhere | Which means | Across the archive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Driving distance | −4.9 yds | shorter off the tee here | 17th shortest of 89 |
| Fairways hit | +0.3 pp | easier to find | middle of the pack |
| Greens in regulation | +3.2 pp | easier to hit | 20th easiest to hit of 88 |
| Scrambling | +4.9 pp | easier to save par | 6th easiest to save from of 81 |
Scoring. These players average 1.73 shots fewer per round here than they do elsewhere.
Plays most like. Golf Club of Houston, TPC Twin Cities, Accordia Golf Narashino — the closest courses in the archive on those four measures together.
Strokes gained per round at this course against the same player’s own average everywhere else. Being a good player is not enough to appear on this list — the comparison is with himself, so what is left is the part that belongs to the course.
| Player | Rounds here | Here | Elsewhere | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Hoge | 14 | +2.43 | +0.14 | +0.84 |
| Adam Hadwin | 12 | +2.22 | +0.21 | +0.67 |
| Cameron Davis | 12 | +1.96 | +0.01 | +0.65 |
| Si Woo Kim | 15 | +1.90 | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Sam Burns | 13 | +1.92 | +0.81 | +0.39 |
| Andrew Putnam | 16 | +1.28 | +0.37 | +0.37 |
Across 8 editions (2019–2026), around the green is the category that most separates players who contend here from those who do not — 26% of the model's weighting, against 24% for off the tee.
The spread is narrow, which is itself the finding: this course does not strongly favour one kind of player. Weights this close to even mean the field sorts mostly on overall quality, and any course-fit edge here is small.
The winners tell a partly separate story: in 3 of the last 7, the champion's best category for the week was putting. That differs from what the model weights, and the gap is instructive — winning weeks are outlier weeks, usually powered by one skill running hot on top of the baseline the course demands.
Strokes gained per round for every champion here since 2019. The highlighted figure is that winner's best category for the week. A dash means the category split is not published for that event — only the total is.
| Year | Winner | To Par | OTT | APP | ARG | PUTT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Scottie Scheffler | -10 | +1.45 | +0.21 | +0.74 | +0.98 | +3.38 |
| 2025 | Sepp Straka | -10 | +0.69 | +1.17 | +0.44 | +1.89 | +4.19 |
| 2024 | Nick Dunlap | -9 | -0.32 | +1.01 | -0.50 | +1.45 | +1.64 |
| 2023 | Jon Rahm | -11 | +0.84 | +2.01 | +0.30 | -1.11 | +2.04 |
| 2022 | Hudson Swafford | -14 | -0.20 | +2.15 | +0.44 | +3.20 | +5.60 |
| 2021 | Si Woo Kim | -19 | +0.67 | +2.63 | +0.56 | +1.19 | +5.06 |
| 2020 | Andrew Landry | -11 | +1.18 | +1.94 | -0.90 | +1.81 | +4.03 |
Every tournament week we score the field on course fit and player quality. Lab Notes lands every Tuesday with what the numbers say, free.
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